In this article, the relationship between stated intention to use contraceptives and subsequent use during a three-year period in Morocco is examined. Longitudinal data are drawn from two Demographic and Health Surveys: the 1992 Morocco DHS and the 1995 Morocco Panel Survey. Reported contraceptive intentions in 1992 have a strong predictive effect on subsequent contraceptive use even after controlling for other characteristics of respondents, and the strength of the effect is second only to that of previous contraceptive use. Women who in 1992 said they intended to use contraceptives in the future but did not do so are the most likely to have had an unmet need for contraception in 1995. Weakly held fertility preferences reported by some of the women surveyed in 1992 appear to have been a contributing factor in the subsequent failure of these women to act upon their intention to practice contraception.
PIP: Research carried out in Morocco indicated that stated intentions to use contraception are a strong predictor of subsequent use. The data were derived from the 1992 Morocco Demographic and Health Survey and the 1995 Morocco Panel Survey. Among all categories of nonusers questioned in 1992, 52% stated that they intended to use a method at some time in the future. This intention was strongest among women who were currently pregnant, especially when the pregnancy was mistimed or unwanted (76%). Women who wanted no more children were more likely to intend to use a method (61%) than those who wanted a child soon (28%). Women who had used a method in the past were twice as likely (73%) to intend to use contraception as never-users (37%). Other factors associated with an increased likelihood of future use intentions included spousal communication about family size, radio exposure, female education, and age 35-49 years. When multivariate analysis was performed, odds ratios greater than 2.0 were observed among women who did not want more children compared with those who wanted another child within 2 years, women who found family planning messages in the media acceptable compared with those who did not, and women who listened regularly to the radio compared with those without such access. There was a strong association--second only to the effect of previous contraceptive use--of contraceptive use intentions reported in 1992 with whether any method was used in the 1992-95 interval. Among women who stated they intended to use in the next 12 months, 76% reported subsequent use; 30% of those who stated they did not intend to use contraception changed their minds. The predictive effect of contraceptive intentions was weaker among women who had not given birth in the 5 years preceding the survey than among those with a recent birth.