A sequential procedure to test the progressive decrease of rare adverse events

Comput Biol Med. 1996 Nov;26(6):513-23. doi: 10.1016/s0010-4825(96)00032-7.


A program to construct the Rapid Sequential Test (R-ST), a sequential procedure to test the decrease of the rate of rare adverse events, is described. This sequential procedure is constructed with the Sequential Probability Ratio method. It relies on a model for the progressive decrease in the rate of adverse events from a given initial rate to a target rate, during a transition period. The program allows one to calculate the bounds of rejection of the R-ST, and to study its power under various types of decrease. It is shown that the R-ST gives a conclusion faster than standard sequential procedures for the same type I and II error, saving at least one quarter of the trials completed during the transition period. The use of the software to construct R-STs is discussed with respect to the specification of the model.

MeSH terms

  • Blood Transfusion / statistics & numerical data
  • Computer Graphics
  • Histocompatibility
  • Humans
  • Mathematics
  • Medical Errors* / statistics & numerical data
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Probability
  • Software*
  • Transfusion Reaction*