Primary biliary cirrhosis: Dutch application of the Mayo Model before and after orthotopic liver transplantation

Hepatogastroenterology. 1997 May-Jun;44(15):732-43.


Background/aims: A retrospective study of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) was performed to study the Original Mayo Model for predicting survival by a Dutch data-set of patients, presentation of disease progression; assessment of liver transplantation, prediction of post-transplantation survival; and the addition of two laboratory variables to the Original Mayo Model.

Materials and methods: Survival of 83 patients, 37 of whom underwent transplantation, were studied. Mean follow-up was 6.0 +/- 0.45 SEM years. Risk score at diagnosis, platelet count, and serum sodium were analyzed in a Cox model.

Results: The Original Mayo Model estimated survival for low-, medium-, and high-risk groups accurately and it also presented disease progression. Baseline Mayo risk score in a Cox model had a regression coefficient of 1.01, indicating an excellent predictor p < 0.0001. Platelet count was a predictor of survival (p < 0.002), whereas serum sodium did not (p = 0.67). A new model combined of the Original Mayo risk score and platelet count predicted survival in high-risk patients somewhat better compared to the Original Mayo Model. With both models, liver transplantation had a significant beneficial effect on survival (p < 0.001). The scores revealed no significant influence (p = 0.47) for overall post-transplantation survival.

Conclusions: The Original Mayo Model remains the model of choice for patients with PBC for prognostication from 3-8 years, is a useful tool in the assessment of liver transplantation but not an indicator of post-transplantation survival. Platelet count showed to have additional prognostic value. A new model combined of platelet count and the Original Mayo risk score did predict survival in high-risk groups slightly better compared to the Original Mayo Model.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / blood
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / mortality
  • Liver Cirrhosis, Biliary / surgery*
  • Liver Transplantation* / mortality
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Platelet Count
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Sodium / blood
  • Survival Rate


  • Sodium