Influenza epidemics and incidence of schizophrenia, affective disorders and mental retardation in Western Australia: no evidence of a major effect

Abstract

In-utero exposure to influenza has been implicated as a risk factor for developmental CNS damage. This study tests the hypothesis that in-utero exposure to influenza: (1) in the second gestational trimester is associated with an increased risk of schizophrenia and affective psychoses; and (2) in the first gestational trimester is associated with an increased risk of mental retardation. Analysis was confined to 1852 cases on the Western Australian psychiatric case register with ICD-9 diagnoses of schizophrenia, affective psychoses, or neurotic depression (comparison group), and 804 cases on the Intellectual Handicap Register with mental retardation that were related to 82,963 'exposed' and 32,462 'non-exposed' births between 1950 and 1960 in the total population of Western Australia. The data were examined for effects associated with six influenza epidemics in the period 1950-1960. Using relative risk ratios for individual epidemics as well as Poisson regression and a proportional hazards model to examine systematic effects for the whole period, no major effect could be identified for maternal influenza on the incidence of schizophrenia, affective psychoses and neurotic depression, despite sufficient statistical power to detect an effect. However, a possible effect was found for mental retardation in males exposed in the first and second gestational trimester.