Despite extensive research, much controversy remains regarding the locus of expression of long-term potentiation (LTP) in area CA1 of the hippocampus, specifically, whether LTP is accompanied by an increase in the probability of release (p(r)) of synaptic vesicles. We have developed a novel method for assaying p(r), which utilizes the synaptic refractory period--a brief 5-6 ms period following release during which the synapse is incapable of transmission (Stevens and Wang, 1995). We show that this assay is sensitive to a battery of manipulations that affect p(r) but find no change following either NMDA receptor-dependent LTP or long-term depression (LTD).