Modelling risk from a disease in time and space

Stat Med. 1998 Sep 30;17(18):2045-2060. doi: 10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(19980930)17:18<2045::aid-sim943>3.0.co;2-p.

Abstract

This paper combines existing models for longitudinal and spatial data in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, with particular emphasis on the role of time- and space-varying covariate effects. Data analysis is implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The methodology is illustrated by a tentative re-analysis of Ohio lung cancer data 1968-1988. Two approaches that adjust for unmeasured spatial covariates, particularly tobacco consumption, are described. The first includes random effects in the model to account for unobserved heterogeneity; the second adds a simple urbanization measure as a surrogate for smoking behaviour. The Ohio data set has been of particular interest because of the suggestion that a nuclear facility in the southwest of the state may have caused increased levels of lung cancer there. However, we contend here that the data are inadequate for a proper investigation of this issue.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Child
  • Ethnicity
  • Humans
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Markov Chains
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Ohio
  • Risk Factors
  • Risk*
  • Sex Factors
  • Smoking / adverse effects
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Urbanization
  • White People