Epidemiological features and temporal trends of HIV-negative tuberculosis burden from 1990 to 2019: a retrospective analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objective: This study aimed to analyse the burden and temporal trends of tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality globally, as well as the association between mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).

Design: A retrospective analysis of TB data from 1990 to 2019 was conducted using the Global Burden of Disease Study database.

Results: Between 1990 and 2019, there was a declining trend in the global incidence and mortality of TB. High SDI regions experienced a higher declining rate than in low SDI regions during the same period. Nearly half of the new patients occurred in South Asia. In addition, there is a sex-age imbalance in the overall burden of TB, with young males having higher incidence and mortality than females. In terms of the three subtypes of TB, drug-sensitive (DS)-TB accounted for more than 90% of the incidents and deaths and experienced a decline over the past 30 years. However, drug-resistant TB (multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB and extensively drug-resistant (XDR)-TB) showed an overall increasing trend in age-standardised incidence rates and age-standardised mortality rates, with an inflection point after the year 2000. At the regional level, South Asia and Eastern Europe remained a high burden of drug-resistant TB incidence and mortality. Interestingly, a negative correlation was found between the MIR and SDI for TB, including DS-TB, MDR-TB and XDR-TB. Notably, central sub-Saharan Africa had the highest MIR, which indicated a higher-than-expected burden given its level of sociodemographic development.

Conclusion: This study provides comprehensive insights into the global burden and temporal trends of TB incidence and mortality, as well as the relationship between MIR and SDI. These findings contribute to our understanding of TB epidemiology and can inform public health strategies for prevention and management.