How the COVID-19 pandemic and the health system's response reduced HIV testing and increased late diagnoses in Mexico

Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the disruption in HIV screening and diagnoses due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and to investigate the pandemic's subsequent influence on the HIV epidemic.

Design: A retrospective examination of testing and confirmed diagnoses time series was undertaken from 2011 to 2022. The analysis encompassed testing, positive tests, positivity rates, and diagnosis outcomes, including new HIV diagnoses, asymptomatic HIV diagnoses, and symptomatic HIV diagnoses.

Methods: We used Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to estimate the COVID-19 epidemic's impact on screening and diagnosis outcomes. We gauged the pandemic's effect between January 2020 and December 2022 by comparing modeled predicted results with actual outcomes.

Results: The advent of COVID-19 prompted a reduction of 50.7% in HIV testing, followed by a monthly escalation in testing afterward, estimated at 30.2 and 65.1% for 2021 and 2022, respectively. Although new diagnoses reported between 2020 and 2022 gradually increased to prepandemic levels, we estimate a gap of 13 207 new diagnoses, with symptomatic detections increasing more than proportionally in 2021 and 2022.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in missed HIV diagnoses and a rise in late HIV diagnoses. Implementing tailored post-COVID-19 strategies to accelerate timely HIV testing and prevention is needed to avert additional burdens and remain on track toward achieving the 2030 HIV management goals.