Monitoring progress towards the elimination of hepatitis C as a public health threat in Norway: a modelling study among people who inject drugs and immigrants

Background: The global incidence target for the elimination of hepatitis C among people who inject drugs (PWID) is <2/100. In Norway, the hepatitis C epidemic is concentrated in PWID. Immigrants are the second most important risk group for chronic infection. We modelled the incidence of hepatitis C among active PWID, and the prevalence of chronic infection among active PWID, ex-PWID and immigrants in Norway until 2022.

Methods: We built a stochastic compartmental model, which was informed using data from national data sources, literature, and expert opinion. We report median values with 95% credible intervals (CrI).

Results: The model estimated 30 (95% Crl: 13-52) new infections among active PWID in 2022, or 0.37/100 (95% Crl: 0.17-0.65), down from a peak of 726 (95% Crl: 506-1,067) in 2000. Across all groups, the model estimated 3,202 (95% Crl: 1,273-6,601) chronically infected persons in 2022. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions: Norway provides an example of the feasibility of hepatitis C elimination in a setting with a concentrated epidemic, high coverage of harm reduction services and no treatment restrictions. Continued momentum is needed to further reduce the transmission and burden of hepatitis C in Norway.