Aim: Bilirubin has potential predictive and prognostic value for myocardial infarction (MI), but the clinical evidence remains controversial. We performed this meta-analysis to systematically quantify the relationships between circulating bilirubin levels and the incidence of MI and post-MI adverse events.
Data synthesis: We searched the PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science databases for ad-hoc studies, published up to October 17, 2020, recording bilirubin before MI (predictive analyses) or adverse events (prognostic analyses). Relative risks (RR) were pooled by a random-effects model. The dose-response analysis was conducted by restricted cubic splines. In patients without previous MI, increased total bilirubin (TB) reduced the risk of long-term (>3 year) first MI by 22% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69-0.88, n = 4). The dose-response analysis indicated that the RR for first MI decreased by 2.7% per each 2 μmol/L increment of TB (three studies, 95% CI: 1.3%-4.1%, P < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 12.60 μmol/L for RR > 1.00. Elevated bilirubin reduced the incidence of first and recurrent MI by 36% (95% CI: 0.42-0.98, n = 7). However, after suffering MI, higher TB concentrations could not decrease the risk of recurrent MI (RR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.67-1.55, n = 5) and increased the incidence of short-term (<1 year) post-MI major adverse cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular mortality, but not long-term (≥1 year).
Conclusion: Higher TB levels within a physiological range reduced the incidence of long-term first MI, with a cut-off value of 12.60 μmol/L.
Keywords: Bilirubin; Dose-reponse; Meta-analysis; Myocardial infarction; Predictive; Prognostic.
Copyright © 2021 The Italian Diabetes Society, the Italian Society for the Study of Atherosclerosis, the Italian Society of Human Nutrition and the Department of Clinical Medicine and Surgery, Federico II University. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.