Development and Validation of a Non-invasive Model to Predict Liver Histological Lesions in Chronic Hepatitis B Patients With Persistently Normal Alanine Aminotransferase and Detectable Viremia

Background: A critical and controversial issue is whether antiviral therapy should be recommended in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection patients with persistently normal alanine aminotransferase (PNALT) and detectable HBV DNA. The study aimed to develop a non-invasive model for predicting significant liver histological changes (SLHC), which is the histological indication for antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with PNALT and detectable HBV DNA.

Methods: 398 chronic HBV infection patients with PNALT and detectable HBV DNA who underwent liver biopsy were divided into the estimation set (n = 256) and validation set (n = 142). A multivariate logistic regression model was developed to predict SLHC in the estimation set, and the diagnostic performance was further validated in the validation set.

Results: 132 patients (33.2%) with PNALT and detectable HBV DNA had SLHC. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST), cholinesterase (ChE), and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were identified as the independent predictors of SLHC. The AUROC of the SLHC index, which combined AST, ChE, and LSM, was 0.824 and 0.816 in the estimation and validation set, respectively, for the prediction of SLHC. Applying the SLHC index ≤ 0.15, the presence of SLHC could be excluded with high negative predictive value in the estimation set (93.2%) and in the validation set (90.2%). Applying the SLHC index ≥ 0.55, the presence of SLHC could be considered with high positive predictive value in the estimation set (79.2%) and in the validation set (76.5%).

Conclusion: The SLHC index provides a high accuracy in predicting liver histological indication for antiviral therapy in CHB patients with PNALT and detectable HBV DNA.