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Seasonal dynamics of recurrent epidemics.
Stone L, Olinky R, Huppert A. Stone L, et al. Nature. 2007 Mar 29;446(7135):533-6. doi: 10.1038/nature05638. Nature. 2007. PMID: 17392785
Seasonality is a driving force that has a major effect on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations. ...Despite the mathematical intractability of the forced SIR model, we identify a new threshold effect and give clear analytical c …
Seasonality is a driving force that has a major effect on the spatio-temporal dynamics of natural systems and their population …
Complex dynamics and phase synchronization in spatially extended ecological systems.
Blasius B, Huppert A, Stone L. Blasius B, et al. Nature. 1999 May 27;399(6734):354-9. doi: 10.1038/20676. Nature. 1999. PMID: 10360572
Population cycles that persist in time and are synchronized over space pervade ecological systems, but their underlying causes remain a long-standing enigma. ...In the proposed spatial model, each local patch sustains a three-level trophic system composed of interac …
Population cycles that persist in time and are synchronized over space pervade ecological systems, but their underlying causes remain a
Bottom-up excitable models of phytoplankton blooms.
Huppert A, Olinky R, Stone L. Huppert A, et al. Bull Math Biol. 2004 Jul;66(4):865-78. doi: 10.1016/j.bulm.2004.01.003. Bull Math Biol. 2004. PMID: 15210323
A simple nutrient-phytoplankton model is used to explore the dynamics of phytoplankton blooms. The model exhibits excitable behaviour in the sense that a large scale outbreak can only be triggered when a critical nutrient threshold is exceeded. ...We provide
A simple nutrient-phytoplankton model is used to explore the dynamics of phytoplankton blooms. The model exhibits excitable behaviour
A model for seasonal phytoplankton blooms.
Huppert A, Blasius B, Olinky R, Stone L. Huppert A, et al. J Theor Biol. 2005 Oct 7;236(3):276-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.03.012. J Theor Biol. 2005. PMID: 15916773
We analyse a generic bottom-up nutrient phytoplankton model to help understand the dynamics of seasonally recurring algae blooms. The deterministic model displays a wide spectrum of dynamical behaviours, from simple cyclical blooms which trigger annually, to irregul …
We analyse a generic bottom-up nutrient phytoplankton model to help understand the dynamics of seasonally recurring algae blooms. The …
Seasonal dynamics and thresholds governing recurrent epidemics.
Olinky R, Huppert A, Stone L. Olinky R, et al. J Math Biol. 2008 Jun;56(6):827-39. doi: 10.1007/s00285-007-0140-4. Epub 2007 Nov 8. J Math Biol. 2008. PMID: 17989980
The analysis reveals a new threshold effect that gives clear conditions for the triggering of future disease outbreaks or their absence. ...
The analysis reveals a new threshold effect that gives clear conditions for the triggering of future disease outbreaks or their absen …
A model of phytoplankton blooms.
Huppert A, Blasius B, Stone L. Huppert A, et al. Am Nat. 2002 Feb;159(2):156-71. doi: 10.1086/324789. Am Nat. 2002. PMID: 18707411
Yet, as discussed and justified from a theoretical standpoint, many blooms are strongly controlled by nutrients rather than by higher trophic levels. The analysis identifies an important threshold effect: a bloom will only be triggered when nutrients exceed a
Yet, as discussed and justified from a theoretical standpoint, many blooms are strongly controlled by nutrients rather than by higher …
Modelling the initial phase of an epidemic using incidence and infection network data: 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Israel as a case study.
Katriel G, Yaari R, Huppert A, Roll U, Stone L. Katriel G, et al. J R Soc Interface. 2011 Jun 6;8(59):856-67. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2010.0515. Epub 2011 Jan 19. J R Soc Interface. 2011. PMID: 21247949 Free PMC article.
Unlike other approaches for estimating the next-generation matrix, the method developed here does not require making a priori assumptions about the structure of the next-generation matrix. We show, using a simulation study, that even a relatively small amount …
Unlike other approaches for estimating the next-generation matrix, the method developed here does not require making a priori assumpt …
Onset of a pandemic: characterizing the initial phase of the swine flu (H1N1) epidemic in Israel.
Roll U, Yaari R, Katriel G, Barnea O, Stone L, Mendelson E, Mandelboim M, Huppert A. Roll U, et al. BMC Infect Dis. 2011 Apr 14;11:92. doi: 10.1186/1471-2334-11-92. BMC Infect Dis. 2011. PMID: 21492430 Free PMC article.
METHODS: We constructed and analyzed a unique dataset from Israel on all confirmed cases (between April 26 to July 7, 2009), representing most swine flu cases in this period. ...Thus our work highlights the importance of conducting a comprehensive study of the initi …
METHODS: We constructed and analyzed a unique dataset from Israel on all confirmed cases (between April 26 to July 7, 2009), represen …
Modeling and statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in Israel.
Huppert A, Barnea O, Katriel G, Yaari R, Roll U, Stone L. Huppert A, et al. PLoS One. 2012;7(10):e45107. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0045107. Epub 2012 Oct 8. PLoS One. 2012. PMID: 23056192 Free PMC article.
BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people each year. ...We use a discrete-time stochastic epidemic SIR model to find estimates and credible confidence intervals of key epidemio …
BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza outbreaks are a serious burden for public health worldwide and cause morbidity to millions of people e …
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