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Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY, Ray EL, Lopez VK, Bracher J, Brennen A, Castro Rivadeneira AJ, Gerding A, Gneiting T, House KH, Huang Y, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mühlemann A, Niemi J, Shah A, Stark A, Wang Y, Wattanachit N, Zorn MW, Gu Y, Jain S, Bannur N, Deva A, Kulkarni M, Merugu S, Raval A, Shingi S, Tiwari A, White J, Abernethy NF, Woody S, Dahan M, Fox S, Gaither K, Lachmann M, Meyers LA, Scott JG, Tec M, Srivastava A, George GE, Cegan JC, Dettwiller ID, England WP, Farthing MW, Hunter RH, Lafferty B, Linkov I, Mayo ML, Parno MD, Rowland MA, Trump BD, Zhang-James Y, Chen S, Faraone SV, Hess J, Morley CP, Salekin A, Wang D, Corsetti SM, Baer TM, Eisenberg MC, Falb K, Huang Y, Martin ET, McCauley E, Myers RL, Schwarz T, Sheldon D, Gibson GC, Yu R, Gao L, Ma Y, Wu D, Yan X, Jin X, Wang YX, Chen Y, Guo L, Zhao Y, Gu Q, Chen J, Wang L, Xu P, Zhang W, Zou D, Biegel H, Lega J, McConnell S, Nagraj VP, Guertin SL, Hulme-Lowe C, Turner SD, Shi Y, Ban X, Walraven R, Hong QJ, Kong S, van de Walle A, Turtle JA, Ben-Nun M, Riley S, Riley P, Koyluoglu U, DesRoches D, Forli P, Hamory B, Kyriakides C, Leis H, Milliken J, Moloney M, Morgan J, Nirgudkar N, Ozcan G, Piwonka N, Ravi M, Schrader C… See abstract for full author list ➔ Cramer EY, et al. Among authors: rumack a. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022 Apr 12;119(15):e2113561119. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119. Epub 2022 Apr 8. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2022. PMID: 35394862 Free PMC article.
Comparing trained and untrained probabilistic ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States.
Ray EL, Brooks LC, Bien J, Biggerstaff M, Bosse NI, Bracher J, Cramer EY, Funk S, Gerding A, Johansson MA, Rumack A, Wang Y, Zorn M, Tibshirani RJ, Reich NG. Ray EL, et al. Among authors: rumack a. Int J Forecast. 2023 Jul-Sep;39(3):1366-1383. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.06.005. Epub 2022 Jul 1. Int J Forecast. 2023. PMID: 35791416 Free PMC article.
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset.
Cramer EY, Huang Y, Wang Y, Ray EL, Cornell M, Bracher J, Brennen A, Rivadeneira AJC, Gerding A, House K, Jayawardena D, Kanji AH, Khandelwal A, Le K, Mody V, Mody V, Niemi J, Stark A, Shah A, Wattanchit N, Zorn MW, Reich NG; US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium. Cramer EY, et al. Sci Data. 2022 Aug 1;9(1):462. doi: 10.1038/s41597-022-01517-w. Sci Data. 2022. PMID: 35915104 Free PMC article.
An open repository of real-time COVID-19 indicators.
Reinhart A, Brooks L, Jahja M, Rumack A, Tang J, Agrawal S, Al Saeed W, Arnold T, Basu A, Bien J, Cabrera ÁA, Chin A, Chua EJ, Clark B, Colquhoun S, DeFries N, Farrow DC, Forlizzi J, Grabman J, Gratzl S, Green A, Haff G, Han R, Harwood K, Hu AJ, Hyde R, Hyun S, Joshi A, Kim J, Kuznetsov A, La Motte-Kerr W, Lee YJ, Lee K, Lipton ZC, Liu MX, Mackey L, Mazaitis K, McDonald DJ, McGuinness P, Narasimhan B, O'Brien MP, Oliveira NL, Patil P, Perer A, Politsch CA, Rajanala S, Rucker D, Scott C, Shah NH, Shankar V, Sharpnack J, Shemetov D, Simon N, Smith BY, Srivastava V, Tan S, Tibshirani R, Tuzhilina E, Van Nortwick AK, Ventura V, Wasserman L, Weaver B, Weiss JC, Whitman S, Williams K, Rosenfeld R, Tibshirani RJ. Reinhart A, et al. Among authors: rumack a. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Dec 21;118(51):e2111452118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2111452118. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021. PMID: 34903654 Free PMC article.
A free-boundary model of a motile cell explains turning behavior.
Nickaeen M, Novak IL, Pulford S, Rumack A, Brandon J, Slepchenko BM, Mogilner A. Nickaeen M, et al. Among authors: rumack a. PLoS Comput Biol. 2017 Nov 14;13(11):e1005862. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005862. eCollection 2017 Nov. PLoS Comput Biol. 2017. PMID: 29136638 Free PMC article.
Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts of epidemics.
Rumack A, Tibshirani RJ, Rosenfeld R. Rumack A, et al. PLoS Comput Biol. 2022 Dec 15;18(12):e1010771. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010771. eCollection 2022 Dec. PLoS Comput Biol. 2022. PMID: 36520949 Free PMC article.