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Clone: a Monte-Carlo computer simulation of B cell clonal expansion, somatic mutation, and antigen-driven selection.
Shlomchik MJ, Watts P, Weigert MG, Litwin S. Shlomchik MJ, et al. Among authors: watts p. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 1998;229:173-97. doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-71984-4_13. Curr Top Microbiol Immunol. 1998. PMID: 9479855 Review. No abstract available.
Probability Theory Plus Noise: Descriptive Estimation and Inferential Judgment.
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Top Cogn Sci. 2018 Jan;10(1):192-208. doi: 10.1111/tops.12319. Top Cogn Sci. 2018. PMID: 29383882
The rationality of illusory correlation.
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Psychol Rev. 2019 Apr;126(3):437-450. doi: 10.1037/rev0000130. Epub 2019 Jan 24. Psychol Rev. 2019. PMID: 30676041
Invariants in probabilistic reasoning.
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Cogn Psychol. 2018 Feb;100:1-16. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2017.11.003. Epub 2017 Dec 6. Cogn Psychol. 2018. PMID: 29220640
Recent research has identified three invariants or identities that appear to hold in people's probabilistic reasoning: the QQ identity, the addition law identity, and the Bayes rule identity (Costello and Watts, 2014, 2016a, Fisher and Wolfe, 2014, Wang and Busemeyer, 2013 …
Recent research has identified three invariants or identities that appear to hold in people's probabilistic reasoning: the QQ identity, the …
Surprising rationality in probability judgment: Assessing two competing models.
Costello F, Watts P, Fisher C. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Cognition. 2018 Jan;170:280-297. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2017.08.012. Epub 2017 Nov 5. Cognition. 2018. PMID: 29096329
We describe 4 experiments testing contrasting predictions of two recent models of probability judgment: the quantum probability model (Busemeyer, Pothos, Franco, & Trueblood, 2011) and the probability theory plus noise model (Costello & Watts, 2014, 2016a). ...Anot …
We describe 4 experiments testing contrasting predictions of two recent models of probability judgment: the quantum probability model (Busem …
People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Cogn Psychol. 2016 Sep;89:106-33. doi: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2016.06.006. Epub 2016 Aug 26. Cogn Psychol. 2016. PMID: 27570097
We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. ...This new model subsumes an earlier model …
We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by …
Surprisingly rational: probability theory plus noise explains biases in judgment.
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Psychol Rev. 2014 Jul;121(3):463-80. doi: 10.1037/a0037010. Psychol Rev. 2014. PMID: 25090427
Probability theory plus noise: Replies to Crupi and Tentori (2016) and to Nilsson, Juslin, and Winman (2016).
Costello F, Watts P. Costello F, et al. Among authors: watts p. Psychol Rev. 2016 Jan;123(1):112-23. doi: 10.1037/rev0000018. Psychol Rev. 2016. PMID: 26709415
In Costello and Watts (2014), we showed that a number of these biases can be explained by a model where people reason according to probability theory but are subject to random noise. ...
In Costello and Watts (2014), we showed that a number of these biases can be explained by a model where people reason according to pr …
Using Arts-Based Therapies to Improve Mental Health for Children and Young People With Physical Health Long-Term Conditions: A Systematic Review of Effectiveness.
Wigham S, Watts P, Zubala A, Jandial S, Bourne J, Hackett S. Wigham S, et al. Among authors: watts p. Front Psychol. 2020 Sep 25;11:1771. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.01771. eCollection 2020. Front Psychol. 2020. PMID: 33101097 Free PMC article.
Two hundred and fifty-four metagenome-assembled bacterial genomes from the bank vole gut microbiota.
Lavrinienko A, Tukalenko E, Mousseau TA, Thompson LR, Knight R, Mappes T, Watts PC. Lavrinienko A, et al. Among authors: watts pc. Sci Data. 2020 Sep 23;7(1):312. doi: 10.1038/s41597-020-00656-2. Sci Data. 2020. PMID: 32968071 Free PMC article.
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