Objective: To investigate risk of a recurrent cardiovascular event and its predictors in a population-based cohort.
Research design and methods: Participants of the Hoorn Study who had experienced a first cardiovascular event after baseline (n = 336) were followed with respect to a recurrent event. Absolute risk of a recurrent event was calculated for individuals with normal glucose metabolism, intermediate hyperglycemia, and type 2 diabetes. Cox regression models were used to investigate which variables, measured before the first vascular event, predicted a recurrent event using the stepwise backward procedure.
Results: During a median follow-up of 4.1 years, 44% (n = 148) of the population developed a recurrent vascular event. The rate of recurrent events per 100 person-years was 7.2 (95% CI 5.8-8.7) in individuals with normal glucose metabolism, compared with 9.8 (6.6-14.0) in individuals with intermediate hyperglycemia and 12.5 (8.5-17.6) in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Higher age (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 1.00-1.04]), male sex (1.56 [1.08-2.25]), waist circumference (1.02 [1.02-1.03]), higher systolic blood pressure (1.01 [1.01-1.02]), higher HbA1c (%, 1.13 [0.97-1.31]/ mmol/mol, 1.01 [1.00-1.03]), and family history of myocardial infarction (1.38 [0.96-2.00]) predicted a recurrent cardiovascular event.
Conclusions: Individuals with type 2 diabetes, but not individuals with intermediate hyperglycemia, are at increased risk for a recurrent vascular event compared with individuals with normal glucose metabolism. In people with a history of cardiovascular disease, people at increased risk of a recurrent event can be identified based on the patient's risk profile before the first event.