A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species

Paleobiology. 1991;17(1):37-48. doi: 10.1017/s0094837300010332.

Abstract

A kill curve for Phanerozoic species is developed from an analysis of the stratigraphic ranges of 17,621 genera, as compiled by Sepkoski. The kill curve shows that a typical species' risk of extinction varies greatly, with most time intervals being characterized by very low risk. The mean extinction rate of 0.25/m.y. is thus a mixture of long periods of negligible extinction and occasional pulses of much higher rate. Because the kill curve is merely a description of the fossil record, it does not speak directly to the causes of extinction. The kill curve may be useful, however, to li¿mit choices of extinction mechanisms.

Publication types

  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Biological Evolution*
  • Cohort Studies
  • Fossils*
  • Geological Phenomena
  • Geology
  • Marine Biology*
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Paleontology / methods*
  • Survival Analysis
  • Time Factors