Objectives: To develop a generic decision-analytic model to predict health and economic outcomes of different management options for cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and disease in liver transplant patients.
Methods and data: The model considers different CMV management strategies, thereby emphasizing the important difference between infection and disease. The first strategy starts with prophylaxis prior to transplantation, followed by preemptive treatment if infection, based on positive CMV diagnostic tests, is confirmed. The second strategy is a preemptive strategy consisting of only testing followed by preemptive treatment. Finally, in the wait-and-treat strategy, antiviral treatment is only started when clinical signs of CMV disease appear. Management and resource-use data were obtained from clinical experts in large transplant centers in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Cost data were collected from the health care payer's perspective. A Bayesian revision technique was applied to distinguish effectiveness of current management options for CMV infection vs. CMV disease, an aspect that is currently underreported in literature.
Results: CMV prophylaxis in liver transplant recipients is generally more cost-effective than preemptive and wait-and-treat strategies. In order of importance, changes in drug costs, drug efficacy, specificity of CMV testing, cost of hospitalization, probability of CMV relapse and baseline CMV risk are the most important factors influencing the cost-effectiveness.
Conclusion: This model describes different strategies applied for management of CMV in liver transplant patients and is useful both for current decision making, optimal disease management, and assessment of future research targets.