Purpose: Few published studies have addressed individual patient risk after R0 resection for gastric cancer. We developed and internally validated a nomogram that combines these factors to predict the probability of 5-year gastric cancer-specific survival on the basis of 1,039 patients treated at a single institution.
Methods: Nomogram predictor variables included age, sex, primary site (distal one-third, middle one-third, gastroesophageal junction, and proximal one-third), Lauren histotype (diffuse, intestinal, mixed), number of positive lymph nodes resected, number of negative lymph nodes resected, and depth of invasion. Death as a result of gastric cancer was the predicted end point. The concordance index was used as an accuracy measure, with bootstrapping to correct for optimistic bias. Calibration plots were constructed.
Results: Gastric cancer-specific survival at 5 years was 50%. A nomogram was constructed on the basis of a Cox regression model. The bootstrap-corrected concordance index was 0.80. When compared with the predictive ability of American Joint Committee on Cancer stage, the nomogram discrimination was superior (P <.001). Nomogram calibration appeared to be excellent.
Conclusion: A nomogram was developed to predict 5-year disease-specific survival after R0 resection for gastric cancer. This tool should be useful for patient counseling, follow-up scheduling, and clinical trial eligibility determination.