Objective: To assess the incidence of operations for neck and pertrochanteric femur fractures during the last 15 years and to estimate the future demand for such operations in The Netherlands.
Design: Retrospective.
Method: For the years 1991, 1995, 2000 and 2004, the following anonymised data were collected in the National Medical Registry of Prismant for all patients admitted to Dutch hospitals for a hip fracture: age-group, gender, length of pre- and postoperative hospital stay, destination after discharge and hospital mortality. These data were related to demographic data for the Dutch population from Statistics Netherlands (CBCS) and to estimates for the Dutch population in the future from Primos Prognostic Data.
Results: The average absolute increase in the period 1991-2004 was linear, with 230 fractures per year. Women were operated for a hip fracture 1.5-2 times as often as men in the same age range. The age-specific incidence remained constant over the years but the absolute number of elderly persons per age group increased. The average length of pre- and postoperative hospital stay was reduced by half during the period under investigation. The postoperative hospital mortality decreased from 8.1% in 1991 to 5.6% in 2004, and was 1.5 times as high for men aged 70 years or over as for women of the same age group. In 2004 as compared to 1991, 2.5 times as many patients were discharged to a nursing home. In view of the increasing age of the population, the total number of operated hip fractures can be expected to be 20,200 in the year 2010 and 23,900 in the year 2020.
Conclusion: In the period 1991-2004 there was an annual increase of 230 operations for proximal femur fractures that was closely related to the ageing of the Dutch population. During the years under investigation, the incidence in the same age range was higher in women, but men had a higher hospital mortality. It is estimated that the decreasing hospital mortality and the decrease in the length of hospital stay will increase the need for nursing-home care for this category of patients.