The objective of the present study was to assess the predictive capacity of the acute Cu biotic ligand model (BLM) as applied to chronic Cu toxicity to Daphnia magna in freshwaters from Chile and synthetic laboratory-prepared waters. Samples from 20 freshwater bodies were taken, chemically characterized, and used in the acute Cu BLM to predict the 21-d chronic Cu toxicity for D. magna. The half-maximal effective concentration (EC50) values, determined using the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 21-d reproduction test (OECD Method 211), were compared with the BLM simulated EC50 values. The same EC50 comparison was performed with the results of 19 chronic tests in synthetic media, with a wide range of hardness and alkalinity and a fixed 2 mg/L dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration. The acute BLM was modified only by adjustment of the accumulation associated with 50% of an effect value (EA50). The modified BLM model was able to predict, within a factor of two, 95% of the 21-d EC50 and 89% of the 21-d half-maximal lethal concentrations (LC50) in natural waters, and 100% of the 21-d EC50 and 21-d LC50 in synthetic waters. The regulatory implications of using a slightly modified version of an acute BLM to predict chronic effects are discussed.
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