Estimates of dengue force of infection in children in Colombo, Sri Lanka

PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013 Jun 6;7(6):e2259. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002259. Print 2013.

Abstract

Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease worldwide and a major cause of childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka, which has experienced a number of large epidemics in the past decade. Despite this, data on the burden and transmission of dengue virus in the Indian Subcontinent are lacking. As part of a longitudinal fever surveillance study, we conducted a dengue seroprevalence survey among children aged <12 years in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We used a catalytic model to estimate the risk of primary infection among seronegative children. Over 50% of children had IgG antibodies to dengue virus and seroprevalence increased with age. The risk of primary infection was 14.1% per year (95% CI: 12.7%-15.6%), indicating that among initially seronegative children, approximately 1 in 7 experience their first infection within 12 months. There was weak evidence to suggest that the force of primary infection could be lower for children aged 6 years and above. We estimate that there are approximately 30 primary dengue infections among children <12 years in the community for every case notified to national surveillance, although this ratio is closer to 100:1 among infants. Dengue represents a considerable infection burden among children in urban Sri Lanka, with levels of transmission comparable to those in the more established epidemics of Southeast Asia.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Antibodies, Viral / blood*
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue Virus / immunology*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Immunoglobulin G / blood
  • Infant
  • Male
  • Seroepidemiologic Studies
  • Sri Lanka / epidemiology

Substances

  • Antibodies, Viral
  • Immunoglobulin G

Grants and funding

This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through PDVI (Grant No. 23197). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.