Objectives: We used an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of hypothetical prevention interventions on HIV incidence trajectories in a concentrated, mixed epidemic setting from 2011 to 2021, and using Cabo Verde as an example.
Methods: Simulations were conducted to evaluate the extent to which early HIV treatment and optimization of care, HIV testing, condom distribution, and substance abuse treatment could eliminate new infections (i.e., reduce incidence to less than 10 cases per 10,000 person-years) among non-drug users, female sex workers (FSW), and people who use drugs (PWUD).
Results: Scaling up all four interventions resulted in the largest decreases in HIV, with estimates ranging from 1.4 (95 % CI 1.36-1.44) per 10,000 person-years among non-drug users to 8.2 (95 % CI 7.8-8.6) per 10,000 person-years among PWUD in 2021. Intervention scenarios prioritizing FWS and PWUD also resulted in HIV incidence estimates at or below 10 per 10,000 person-years by 2021 for all population sub-groups.
Conclusions: Our results suggest that scaling up multiple interventions among entire population is necessary to achieve elimination. However, prioritizing key populations with this combination prevention strategy may also result in a substantial decrease in total incidence.