In Kampo medicine, two different formulas are effective for treating dysmenorrhea-tokishakuyakusan and keishibukuryogan; however, the criteria by which specialists select the appropriate formula for each patient are not clear. We compared patients treated with tokishakuyakusan and those with keishibukuryogan and proposed a predictive model. The study included 168 primary and secondary dysmenorrhea patients who visited the Kampo Clinic at Keio University Hospital. We collected clinical data from 128 dysmenorrhea patients, compared the two patient groups and selected significantly different factors as potential predictors, and used logistic regression to establish a model. An external validation was performed using 40 dysmenorrhea patients. Lightheadedness, BMI < 18.5, and a weak abdomen were significantly more frequent in the tokishakuyakusan group; tendency to sweat, heat intolerance, leg numbness, a cold sensation in the lower back, a strong abdomen, and paraumbilical tenderness and resistance were more frequent in the keishibukuryogan group. The final model fitted the data well. Internally estimated accuracy was 81.2%, and a leave-one-out cross-validation estimate of accuracy was 80.5%. External validation accuracy was 85.0%. We proposed a model for predicting the use of two Kampo formulas for dysmenorrhea, which should be validated in prospective trials.