Extending the paleontology-biogeography reciprocity with SDMs: Exploring models and data in reducing fossil taxonomic uncertainty

PLoS One. 2018 Mar 28;13(3):e0194725. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0194725. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

Historically, studies aimed at prospecting and analyzing paleontological and neontological data to investigate species distribution have developed separately. Research at the interface between paleontology and biogeography has shown a unidirectional bias, mostly focusing on how paleontological information can aid biogeography to understand species distribution through time. However, the modern suit of techniques of ecological biogeography, particularly species distribution models (SDM), can be instrumental for paleontologists as well, improving the biogeography-paleontology interchange. In this study, we explore how to use paleoclimatic data and SDMs to support paleontological investigation regarding reduction of taxonomic uncertainty. Employing current data from two neotropical species (Lagostomus maximus and Myocastor coipus), we implemented SDMs and performed model validation comparing hindcasts with dated fossil occurrences (~14k and ~20k years back present, respectively). Finally, we employed the hindcasting process for two South American fossil records of a misidentified species of caiman (Caiman sp.) to show that C. latirostris is the most likely species identity of these fossils (among four candidate species: C. latirostris, C. yacare, C. crocodilus, and Melanosuchus niger). Possible limitations of the approach are discussed. With this strategy, we have shown that current developments in biogeography research can favour paleontology, extending the (biased) current interchange between these two scientific disciplines.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Alligators and Crocodiles / classification*
  • Alligators and Crocodiles / physiology*
  • Animal Distribution*
  • Animals
  • Fossils*
  • Geography
  • Models, Biological*
  • Paleontology*
  • Phylogeny
  • Uncertainty

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa e à Inovação Tecnológica do Estado do Sergipe - URL: http://www.fapitec.se.gov.br/, proc. 0.19.203.00428/2016-1 (authors who received the funding: AAE AL); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - URL: http://cnpq.br/, proc. 430807/2016-3 (author who received the funding: LK); Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - URL: http://cnpq.br/, proc. 402469/2016-0, (author who received the funding: SFG); and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - URL: http://cnpq.br/, proc. 431463/2016-6 (author who received the funding: PAM).