Background: Administrative data are used to examine variation in thirty-day mortality across health services in several jurisdictions. Hospital performance measurement may be error-prone as information about disease severity is not typically available in routinely collected data to incorporate into case-mix adjusted analyses. Using ischaemic stroke as a case study, we tested the extent to which accounting for disease severity impacts on hospital performance assessment.
Methods: We linked all recorded ischaemic stroke admissions between July, 2011 and June, 2014 to death registrations and a measure of stroke severity obtained at first point of patient contact with health services, across New South Wales, Australia's largest health service jurisdiction. Thirty-day hospital standardised mortality ratios were adjusted for either comorbidities, as is typically done, or for both comorbidities and stroke severity. The impact of stroke severity adjustment on mortality ratios was determined using 95% and 99% control limits applied to funnel plots and by calculating the change in rank order of hospital risk adjusted mortality rates.
Results: The performance of the stroke severity adjusted model was superior to incorporating comorbidity burden alone (c-statistic = 0.82 versus 0.75; N = 17,700 patients, 176 hospitals). Concordance in outlier classification was 89% and 97% when applying 95% or 99% control limits to funnel plots, respectively. The sensitivity rates of outlier detection using comorbidity adjustment compared with gold-standard severity and comorbidity adjustment was 74% and 83% with 95% and 99% control limits, respectively. Corresponding positive predictive values were 74% and 91%. Hospital rank order of risk adjusted mortality rates shifted between 0 to 22 places with severity adjustment (Median = 4.0, Inter-quartile Range = 2-7).
Conclusions: Rankings of mortality rates varied widely depending on whether stroke severity was taken into account. Funnel plots yielded largely concordant results irrespective of severity adjustment and may be sufficiently accurate as a screening tool for assessing hospital performance.