This study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for microvascular decompression (MVD)-treated trigeminal neuralgia (TN). The nomogram was based on a retrospective cohort study of 1054 patients with TN. During the period 2005-2014, 845 patients at our department treated TN with MVD and served as a development cohort. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The model was externally validated by 209 TN patients during 2014-2016. Multivariate cox analysis suggested that the patient's age, atypical pain, vascular type, number of offending vessels, and second MVD were significant factors influencing the prognosis of MVD-treated TN. The C index of nomogram in the development cohort was 0.767 (95% CI, 0.739-0.794), and 0.749 (95% CI, 0.688-0.810) in the validation cohort. We developed and validated a nomogram to predict 3-year overall remission rate after MVD treatment of TN. The nomogram can be used in clinical trials to determine the likelihood of pain recurrence in TN patients treated with MVD for 3 years to aid in the comprehensive treatment of TN.
Keywords: Microvascular decompression; Nomogram; Predictive model; Remission rate; Trigeminal neuralgia.