Benford's Law and COVID-19 reporting

Christoffer Koch; Ken Okamura

doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109573

Benford's Law and COVID-19 reporting

Econ Lett. 2020 Nov:196:109573. doi: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109573. Epub 2020 Sep 14.

Authors

Christoffer Koch¹, Ken Okamura²

Affiliations

¹ Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 North Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201, United States.
² Saïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, United Kingdom.

Abstract

Trust in the reported data of contagious diseases in real time is important for policy makers. Media and politicians have cast doubt on Chinese reported data on COVID-19 cases. We find Chinese confirmed infections match the distribution expected in Benford's Law and are similar to that seen in the U.S. and Italy. We identify a more likely candidate for problems in the policy making process: Poor multilateral data sharing on testing and sampling.

Keywords: Corona COVID-19; Government accountability; Statistical reporting; World Health Organization.