Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality in Israel

Nat Commun. 2021 Mar 26;12(1):1904. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-22214-z.

Abstract

The spread of Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has led to many healthcare systems being overwhelmed by the rapid emergence of new cases. Here, we study the ramifications of hospital load due to COVID-19 morbidity on in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by analyzing records of all 22,636 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Israel from mid-July 2020 to mid-January 2021. We show that even under moderately heavy patient load (>500 countrywide hospitalized severely-ill patients; the Israeli Ministry of Health defined 800 severely-ill patients as the maximum capacity allowing adequate treatment), in-hospital mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 significantly increased compared to periods of lower patient load (250-500 severely-ill patients): 14-day mortality rates were 22.1% (Standard Error 3.1%) higher (mid-September to mid-October) and 27.2% (Standard Error 3.3%) higher (mid-December to mid-January). We further show this higher mortality rate cannot be attributed to changes in the patient population during periods of heavier load.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / prevention & control*
  • COVID-19 / virology
  • Epidemics
  • Female
  • Hospital Mortality / trends*
  • Hospitalization / statistics & numerical data
  • Hospitals / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Israel / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • SARS-CoV-2 / isolation & purification*
  • SARS-CoV-2 / physiology