Identification of Distinct Disease Activity Trajectories in Methotrexate-Naive Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Receiving Tofacitinib Over Twenty-Four Months

Abstract

Objective: Tofacitinib is an oral JAK inhibitor for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). To better understand tofacitinib treatment responses, we used group-based trajectory modeling to investigate distinct disease activity trajectories and associated baseline variables in patients with active RA.

Methods: This post hoc analysis used data from a phase III study of methotrexate-naive patients receiving tofacitinib 5 mg twice daily. Changes in the 4-variable Disease Activity Score in 28 joints, using the erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) from baseline to month 24 were used in group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct disease activity trajectories. Patient and disease characteristics, changes in radiographic progression and patient-reported outcomes, and safety up to month 24 were compared among trajectory groups.

Results: From 346 methotrexate-naive patients, 5 disease trajectory groups, defined by DAS28-ESR scores, were identified, which progressed from high disease activity (HDA) to remission (group 1, n = 28), to low disease activity (LDA) rapidly (group 2, n = 107), to moderate disease activity (group 3, n = 98), to LDA gradually (group 4, n = 46), or remained in HDA (group 5, n = 67), at month 24. At baseline, groups 1 and 2 generally had lower disease activity and more favorable patient-reported outcomes, compared with other groups. Improvements in radiographic progression and patient-reported outcomes over 24 months were generally consistent with DAS28-ESR-predicted disease activity trajectories. Adverse event rates were generally comparable across groups.

Conclusion: Distinct phenotypic subgroups identified heterogeneity in patients with RA normally analyzed as a single population. Trajectory modeling may enable separation of clinically meaningful subsets of patients with RA, and may help optimize treatment outcomes.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01039688.