Objectives: To develop and apply magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) parameter-based machine learning (ML) models to predict non-perfused volume (NPV) reduction and residual regrowth of uterine fibroids after high-intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) ablation.Methods: MRI data of 573 uterine fibroids in 410 women who underwent HIFU ablation from the Chongqing Haifu Hospital (training set, N = 405) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University (testing set, N = 168) were retrospectively analyzed. Fourteen MRI parameters were screened for important predictors using the Boruta algorithm. Multiple ML models were constructed to predict NPV reduction and residual fibroid regrowth in a median of 203.0 (interquartile range: 122.5-367.5) days. Furthermore, optimal models were used to plot prognostic prediction curves.Results: Fourteen features, including postoperative NPV, indicated predictive ability for NPV reduction. Based on the 10-fold cross-validation, the best average performance of multilayer perceptron achieved with R2 was 0.907. In the testing set, the best model was linear regression (R2 =0.851). Ten features, including the maximum thickness of residual fibroids, revealed predictive power for residual fibroid regrowth. Random forest model achieved the best performance with an average area under the curve (AUC) of 0.904 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.869-0.939), which was maintained in the testing set with an AUC of 0.891 (95% CI, 0.850-0.929).Conclusions: ML models based on MRI parameters can be used for prognostic prediction of uterine fibroids after HIFU ablation. They can potentially serve as a new method for learning more about ablated fibroids.
Keywords: High-intensity focused ultrasound; machine learning; prognosis; residual fibroids; uterine fibroids.