Introduction: Probability of target attainment (PTA) analysis using Monte Carlo simulations has become a mainstay of dose optimization. We highlight the technical and clinical factors that may affect PTA for beta-lactams.
Methods: We performed a mini review in adults to explore factors relating to cefepime PTA success and how researchers incorporate PTA into dosing decisions. In addition, we investigated, via simulations with a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model, factors that may affect cefepime PTA success.
Results: The mini review included 14 articles. PTA results were generally consistent, given the differences in patient populations. However, dosing recommendations were more varied and appeared to depend on the definition of pharmacodynamic (PD) target, definition of PTA success and specific clinical considerations. Only 3 of 14 articles performed formal toxicological analysis. Simulations demonstrated that the largest determinants of cefepime PTA were the choice of PD target, continuous vs. intermittent infusion and creatinine clearance. Assumptions for protein binding, steady state vs. first dose, and simulating different sampling schemes may impact PTA success under certain conditions. The choice of one or two compartments had a minimal effect on PTA.
Conclusions: PTA results may be similar with different assumptions and techniques. However, dose recommendation may differ significantly based on the selection of PD target, definition of PTA success and considerations specific to a patient population. Demographics and the PK parameters used to simulate time-concentration profiles should be derived from patient data applicable to the purpose of the PTA. There should be strong clinical rationale for dose selection. When possible, safety and toxicity should be considered in addition to PTA success.
Keywords: antibiotics; beta-lactams; cefepime; cephalosporins; population pharmacokinetics; probability of target attainment; simulations.