Background: The effect of a single tumor marker on the prognosis of gastric cancer patients is not ideal. This study explored a novel prognostic assessment method for gastric cancer (GC) patients using a combination of three important tumor markers (CEA, CA72-4, and CA19-9).
Method: Data from 1966 GC patients who underwent curative gastrectomy at Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center (Guangzhou, China) were included. Hazard ratios (HR) for all factors for overall survival (OS) were analyzed by Cox regression. A nomogram and calibration curve were used to establish the survival prediction model. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with the concordance index (C-index).
Results: All patients were divided into four groups (C0-C3) according to the number of elevated tumor markers. The 5-year OS rates of the patients in preoperative groups C0-C3 were 83.8% (81.3-86.4%), 72.8% (68.5-77.4%), 58.9% (50.4-68.9%), and 18.5% (4.0-33.0%), respectively, and those in postoperative groups C0-C3 were 82.1% (79.4-84.8%), 76.1% (72.2-80.3%), 57.6% (48.4-68.5%), and 16.8% (5.1-28.5%), respectively, with significant differences between each C0-C3 subgroup in both preoperative and postoperative cohorts. Multivariate analysis showed that preoperative (HR: 6.001, 95% CI: 3.523-10.221) and postoperative (HR: 8.149, 95% CI: 4.962-13.528) elevated tumor markers were independent risk factors for GC patients. The C-index for the combined use of tumor markers was 0.65-0.66, which was higher than that for using a single tumor marker (0.53-0.56).
Conclusion: The combined use of tumor markers significantly improved the prognostic value compared with using a single tumor marker. The survival prediction model including the combined tumor markers was accurate and effective.
Keywords: Curative gastrectomy; Gastric cancer; Independent risk factor; Prognosis; Tumor marker.
© 2023. Society of Surgical Oncology.