Objective: To assess the probability of being cured from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) by pancreatic surgery.
Summary background data: Statistical cure implies that a patient treated for a specific disease will have the same life expectancy as if he/she never had that disease.
Methods: Patients who underwent pancreatic resection for PDAC between 2010 and 2021 were retrospectively identified using a multi-institutional database. A non-mixture statistical cure model was applied to compare disease-free survival to the survival expected for matched general population.
Results: Among 2554 patients, either in the setting of upfront (n=1691) or neoadjuvant strategy (n=863), the cure model showed that the probability that surgery would offer the same life-expectancy (and tumor-free) as the matched general population was 20.4% (95%CI: 18.3, 22.5). Cure likelihood reached the 95% of certainty (time-to-cure) after 5.3 years (95%CI: 4.7, 6.0). A preoperative model was developed based on tumor stage at diagnosis (P=0.001), radiological size (P=0.001), response to chemotherapy (P=0.007), American Society of Anesthesiology class (P=0.001) and pre-operative Ca19-9 (P=0.001). A post-operative model with the addition of surgery type (P=0.015), pathological size (P=0.001), tumour grading (P=0.001), resection margin (P=0.001), positive lymphnode ratio (P=0.001) and the receipt of adjuvant therapy (P=0.001) was also developed.
Conclusions: Patients operated for PDAC can achieve a life-expectancy similar to that of general population and the likelihood of cure increases with the passage of recurrence-free time. An online calculator was developed and available at https://aicep.website/?cff-form=15.
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