Common dysglycemia measurements including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT)-derived 2 h plasma glucose, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) have limitations for children. Dynamic OGTT glucose and insulin responses may better reflect underlying physiology. This analysis assessed glucose and insulin curve shapes utilizing classifications-biphasic, monophasic, or monotonically increasing-and functional principal components (FPCs) to predict future dysglycemia. The prospective cohort included 671 participants with no previous diabetes diagnosis (BMI percentile ≥ 85th, 8-18 years old); 193 returned for follow-up (median 14.5 months). Blood was collected every 30 min during the 2 h OGTT. Functional data analysis was performed on curves summarizing glucose and insulin responses. FPCs described variation in curve height (FPC1), time of peak (FPC2), and oscillation (FPC3). At baseline, both glucose and insulin FPC1 were significantly correlated with BMI percentile (Spearman correlation r = 0.22 and 0.48), triglycerides (r = 0.30 and 0.39), and HbA1c (r = 0.25 and 0.17). In longitudinal logistic regression analyses, glucose and insulin FPCs predicted future dysglycemia (AUC = 0.80) better than shape classifications (AUC = 0.69), HbA1c (AUC = 0.72), or FPG (AUC = 0.50). Further research should evaluate the utility of FPCs to predict metabolic diseases.
Keywords: curve shape; functional data analysis; glucose; hemoglobin A1C; insulin; longitudinal prediction; oral glucose tolerance test; pediatrics; prediabetes.