Background: Screening with anti-Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV) serology and endoscopy decreased nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) mortality in Guangdong in a randomized trial. We conducted a secondary analysis of this trial using local incidence and cost data to optimize screening programs, hypothesizing that screening could be cost-effective in southern China.
Methods: Screening costs and life-years after NPC diagnosis were obtained from the Guangdong trial's intent-to-screen population (men and women age 30-69). Seropositive subjects were rescreened annually for five years. Thereafter, we evaluated 12 screening strategies in Guangdong and Guangxi using a validated model. Strategies used combinations of serology, nasopharyngeal swab PCR (NP PCR), endoscopy, and MRI from trial sub-cohorts. Incidence data and costs were obtained from local cancer registries and the provincial healthcare system.
Results: In the intent-to-screen population, screening with serology and endoscopy was cost-effective (¥42,366/life-year, 0.52 GDP per-capita). Screening for 5-15 years between ages 35-59 met a willingness-to-pay threshold of 1.5 GDP/QALY in all modeled populations. Despite doubling costs, adding MRI could be cost-effective via improved sensitivity. NP PCR triage reduced endoscopy/MRI referrals by 37%. One lifetime screen could reduce NPC mortality by pproximately 20%.
Conclusions: EBV-based serologic screening for NPC is likely to be cost-effective in southern China. Among seropositive subjects, the preferred strategies use endoscopy alone or selective endoscopy triaged by MRI with or without NP PCR. These data may aid the design of screening programs in this region.
Impact: These findings support population-based screening in southern China by defining the target population, cost effectiveness, and optimized screening approach.