Predicting repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) treatment outcomes in major depressive disorder (MDD) could reduce the financial and psychological risks of treatment failure. We systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed studies that leveraged neurophysiological and neuroimaging markers to predict rTMS response in MDD. Five databases were searched from inception to May 25, 2023. The primary meta-analytic outcome was predictive accuracy pooled from classification models. Regression models were summarized qualitatively. A promising marker was identified if it showed a sensitivity and specificity of 80% or higher in at least two independent studies. Searching yielded 36 studies. Twenty-two classification modeling studies produced an estimated area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 (95% CI = 0.83-0.92), with 86.8% sensitivity (95% CI = 80.6-91.2%) and 81.9% specificity (95% CI = 76.1-86.4%). Frontal theta cordance measured by electroencephalography is closest to proof of concept. Predicting rTMS response using neurophysiological and neuroimaging markers is promising for clinical decision-making. However, replications by different research groups are needed to establish rigorous markers.
Keywords: Classification accuracy; Major depressive disorder; Neuroimaging; Neurophysiological markers; Predictive models; Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation.
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