Background: The incidence of male breast cancer has been increasing in recent years; however, the long-term survival outcomes of diagnosed patients remain uncertain. This study was designed to evaluate the conditional survival of male breast cancer patients and to predict the future survival of patients through the conditional nomogram, to provide important suggestions for clinical decision-making.
Methods: Retrospective data from the SEER database included 3600 male breast cancer patients, divided into training and validation groups (7 : 3 ratio). Overall survival rates were calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Conditional survival analysis described survival at specific years. Time-dependent multivariate Cox analysis identified prognostic factors' impact. The conditional survival nomogram model predicted real-time survival rates.
Results: Over time, the 5-year real-time survival rate of patients gradually improved, increasing from 70.5 to 74.8, 79.4, 85.8, and 92.9% (respectively, representing 5-year survival rates of 1-4 years after diagnosis). In addition, the improvement in conditional survival rate CS5 showed a nonlinear trend. After 5 years of diagnosis, age, tumor size, and tumor stage had a sustained impact on patient prognosis. Finally, a conditional survival nomogram was constructed to predict the 10-year survival rate in real time.
Conclusion: Five years after diagnosis, the conditional survival rate of male patients with breast cancer has improved, but it is not nonlinear. In the first 5 years after diagnosis, patients with older age, larger tumor size, poorer tumor stage, and distant metastasis should be actively followed up and treated to improve their long-term survival.
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