Source-oriented health risk assessment of groundwater nitrate by using EMMTE coupled with HHRA model

Abstract

Conventional concentration-oriented approaches for nitrate risk diagnosis only provide overall risk levels without identifying risk values of individual sources or sources accountable for potential health risks. Therefore, a hybrid model combining the end-member mixing model tool on Excel™ (EMMTE) with human health risk assessment (HHRA) was developed to assess the source-oriented health risks for groundwater nitrate, particularly in the Poyang Lake Plain (PLP) region. The results indicated that the EMMTE and the Bayesian stable isotope mixing model (MixSIAR) exhibited remarkable consistency in source apportionment of groundwater nitrate. The source contribution of groundwater nitrate in PLP was related to land use types, hydrogeological conditions, and soil properties. Notably, manure and sewage sources, contributing up to 53.4 %, represented the largest nitrate pollution sources, with a significant contribution of soil nitrogen and nitrogen fertilizers. The non-carcinogenic risk for four potential sources was below the acceptable threshold of 1. Given the factors including rainfall dilution and economic development, attention should be directed towards mitigating the health risks posed by manure and sewage. This study can verify the efficacy of EMMTE in source apportionment and offer valuable insights for decision-makers to regulate the largest sources of nitrate contamination and enhance groundwater management efficiency.

Keywords: Groundwater nitrate; Health risk assessment; Monte Carlo simulation; Source apportionment.