Age-related bias in probabilistic death searches due to neglect of the "prior likelihoods"

Comput Biomed Res. 1995 Apr;28(2):87-99. doi: 10.1006/cbmr.1995.1007.

Abstract

Major systematic bias can result when age-specific mortality data are sought through automated searches of large national death files, based on calculated odds in favor of a correct match. The bias occurs whenever the calculation fails to take into account: (a) the size of the death file being searched and (b) the age dependent likelihood that individual search record will find a correct match somewhere in that file. Indeed, there is widespread neglect of the "prior likelihood" or "prior odds" in favor of a fortuitous correct match on a single random pairing (i.e., before the identifiers have been compared). As a result, ratios of false matches to false nonmatches may be expected to vary widely in the different strata of a breakdown by age. A solution is described, using data from life tables and death statistics. The flexibility and merit of the "prior odds" for general application is emphasized.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Bias
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Computers
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Likelihood Functions*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality*
  • Odds Ratio
  • Probability