Applicants to medical school: the value of predicted school leaving grades

Med Educ. 1997 Sep;31(5):307-11. doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2923.1997.00660.x.

Abstract

Among school leavers applying to study medicine in the United Kingdom a majority offer General Certificate of Education, Advanced Level (A-level) examinations as part of the assessment of academic ability. At the time of application, up to 9 months before completing A-level studies, schools are requested to predict the final grades likely to be achieved by the applicant. A total of 5054 A-level predictions from 1661 applicants to a single medical school were compared with the results achieved. Predicted and achieved grades were both high with 93% of predicted grades being A or B. Over half the predictions were correct, with 41% of predictions above achieved grades and only 7% below achieved grade. Independent and selective schools predicted higher grades than comprehensive schools and sixth form colleges, and their pupils were more likely to achieve the entrance requirements. A-level predictions for medical school applicants are a strong predictor of achievement and should continue to be regarded as a useful part of the selection process.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Education, Medical, Undergraduate*
  • Educational Measurement*
  • England
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Male
  • School Admission Criteria
  • Schools, Medical*
  • Sensitivity and Specificity