The objective of this study was to determine the probabilities of specific morbid events or death among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) treated by hemodialysis. A prospective cohort study was performed between March 1988 and September 1989 in 18 hemodialysis centers in 13 Canadian cities, representing about one third of the hemodialysis population in Canada. The inception cohort consisted of 496 patients entering hemodialysis who had survived 1 month. The few new hemodialysis patients who received erythropoietin (EPO) in the last 3 months of the study were excluded. Survival curves were compared using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Older age and history of cardiovascular disease were independently associated with a greater probability of death. Age and history of cardiovascular disease were also associated with a greater probability of nonfatal circulatory events (myocardial infarction, angina requiring hospitalization, or stroke), while a serum albumin level less than or equal to 30 g/L (3.0 g dL) was associated with an increased probability of pulmonary edema. The probability of surviving 12 months without receiving a blood transfusion was 47.2% for males and 27.5% for females. The incidence of non-A, non-B hepatitis, as estimated by unexplained elevations in serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) values, was not different between patients receiving and not receiving blood transfusions. The probability of hospitalization for any cause was greater for patients with grafts for vascular access than for those with fistulae, for those with a history of cardiovascular disease, for those with a serum albumin level less than or equal to 30 g/L, and for those with renal disease due to diabetes or vascular disease. Hospitalization due to circulatory disease was more likely among those with a history of cardiovascular disease and among those with a lower serum albumin level. Hospitalization for infectious disease was more likely among those with a lower serum albumin level and less likely among those with a fistula for vascular access. Among all patients receiving hemodialysis treatment for more than 6 months, there were 14.8 hospital days per year.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)