Background: To develop strategies for the prediction of sepsis outcome systemic procalcitonin (PCT) levels were correlated with various clinical parameters.
Methods: PCT levels and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scores were assessed on the day of sepsis diagnosis in a large series (n = 160) of patients developing sepsis after major visceral surgery.
Results: In multivariate analysis, systemic PCT and the APACHE II score could be identified as independent early predictive indicators of lethal sepsis. Combining both indicators at sepsis onset, a prognosis score could be calculated using binary logistic regression analysis allowing the identification of high- and low-risk groups. While 71% of the high-risk patients died of sepsis, 77% of patients assigned to the low-risk group survived the septic complication (sensitivity 71%, specificity 77%).
Conclusion: Calculation of the prognosis-score allowed for an early prediction of the septic course with high sensitivity and specificity. This information could aid in deciding on adequate treatment strategies.