Beyond Deterministic Models in Drug Discovery and Development

Trends Pharmacol Sci. 2020 Nov;41(11):882-895. doi: 10.1016/ Epub 2020 Oct 5.


The model-informed drug discovery and development paradigm is now well established among the pharmaceutical industry and regulatory agencies. This success has been mainly due to the ability of pharmacometrics to bring together different modeling strategies, such as population pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) and systems biology/pharmacology. However, there are promising quantitative approaches that are still seldom used by pharmacometricians and that deserve consideration. One such case is the stochastic modeling approach, which can be important when modeling small populations because random events can have a huge impact on these systems. In this review, we aim to raise awareness of stochastic models and how to combine them with existing modeling techniques, with the ultimate goal of making future drug-disease models more versatile and realistic.

Keywords: MID3; deterministic; infectious diseases; nonlinear mixed-effects models; oncology; stochastic.

Publication types

  • Review

MeSH terms

  • Drug Development / methods*
  • Drug Discovery / methods*
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological*
  • Stochastic Processes